June marks the official start of hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30. But how many of these potentially dangerous storms should we expect (and prepare for) this year?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released its 2023 Atlanta Hurricane Season outlook, which forecasts a “near-normal” season. Specifically, the agency predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
This year, NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), including 5 to 9 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher). Up to 4 of these potential hurricanes are forecast to be “major hurricanes,” with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
Despite the near-normal season expected, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) urged everyone to remain vigilant.
“As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell.
FEMA also noted that hurricanes don’t just affect coastal communities; these powerful storms can bring wind and flooding to areas far inland.
“The time to prepare is now,” said Criswell.
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, the agency also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2023 Atlantic outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
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